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Article Navigation >  Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering  > 2019  >  19(4): 137-150
HU Yao, WEI Wei, SHANG Ming-ju, LI Li, LI Yang. Calculation model of intersection capacity based on traffic flow survival function[J]. Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, 2019, 19(4): 137-150. doi: 10.19818/j.cnki.1671-1637.2019.04.013
Citation: HU Yao, WEI Wei, SHANG Ming-ju, LI Li, LI Yang. Calculation model of intersection capacity based on traffic flow survival function[J]. Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, 2019, 19(4): 137-150. doi: 10.19818/j.cnki.1671-1637.2019.04.013
shu

Calculation model of intersection capacity based on traffic flow survival function

doi: 10.19818/j.cnki.1671-1637.2019.04.013
  • 1.

    School of Mathematics and Statistics, Guizhou University, Guiyang 550025, Guizhou, China

  • 2.

    Guizhou Provincial Key Laboratory of Public Big Data, Guizhou University, Guiyang 550025, Guizhou, China

  • 3.

    School of Data Science and Information Engineering, Guizhou Minzu University, Guiyang 550025, Guizhou, China

More Information
  • Author Bio:

    HU Yao(1971-), male, professor, yhu1@gzu.edu.cn

  • Received Date: 2019-03-18
  • Publish Date: 2019-08-25
    Abstract
  • The concept of stochastic traffic capacity of urban road was proposed for the disadvantage that the basic traffic capacity was unable to fully reflect the road traffic conditions. According to the evaluation system, the traffic breakdown and continuous breakdown were defined to quantify the degree of urban road traffic congestion. The existing estimation methods of traffic capacity were studied, and the product-limit and lifetime distribution were used to construct and estimate the traffic flow distribution function. The parameter model of traditional continuous traffic flow was improved by combining the characteristics of traffic flow data of each intersection entrance, and a calculation model of intersection capacity based on traffic flow survival function was proposed. The estimation result of the calculation model was compared with Highway Capacity Manual 2010 model and practical traffic flow of intersection to analyze the computation errors. Analysis result shows that the mean errors of intersection capacity with traffic breakdown and continuous breakdown calculated by the survival function model and HCM2010 model are 0.162 1 and 0.116 4, respectively, and the variances are 0.029 0 and 0.015 2, respectively, both have small error fluctuation. The relative errors between the results of the proposed calculation model and the measured greater traffic flow are 9.720%, 3.822% and 4.936%, 4.779%, respectively. The relative error of the proposed calculation model in a statistic sense is 5.871%, and the estimation effect is robust. There is a product-limit survival function between the traffic breakdown time, probability of acceptable breakdown, traffic flow, speed and traffic capacity. The traffic capacity of the researched intersection is 7 632 pcu·h-1, so the estimation result of the proposed calculation model is more reliable. Therefore, the proposed calculation model has high practicability, especially in urban road traffic areas with different congestion degrees. By estimating traffic capacity of the acceptable breakdown probability, the optimization objective, scientific decision and acceptable theoretical basis can be provided for urban road traffic organization and management department.

     

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