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Article Navigation >  Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering  > 2020  >  20(3): 150-158
ZHANG Yu, TIAN Wan-li, WU Zhong-guang, CHEN Zong-wei, WANG Ji. Transmission mechanism of COVID-19 epidemic along traffic routes based on improved SEIR model[J]. Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, 2020, 20(3): 150-158. doi: 10.19818/j.cnki.1671-1637.2020.03.014
Citation: ZHANG Yu, TIAN Wan-li, WU Zhong-guang, CHEN Zong-wei, WANG Ji. Transmission mechanism of COVID-19 epidemic along traffic routes based on improved SEIR model[J]. Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, 2020, 20(3): 150-158. doi: 10.19818/j.cnki.1671-1637.2020.03.014
shu

Transmission mechanism of COVID-19 epidemic along traffic routes based on improved SEIR model

doi: 10.19818/j.cnki.1671-1637.2020.03.014

  • Research Center for Standards and Metrology, China Academy of Transportation Sciences, Beijing 100029, China

Funds:

National Key Research and Development Program of China 2017YFF0207500

Transport Standard(Quota) Project 2019-99-069

Basic Scientific Research Project of Central Public Welfare Research Institute 20190402

Science and Technology Project of Anhui Transportation Holding Group Co., Ltd 2018basz0185

Science and Technology Planning Project of Zhejiang Province Transportation Quality Supervision Industry zj201901

More Information
  • Author Bio:

    ZHANG Yu(1979-), female, associate research fellow, zhangyu@motcats.ac.cn

  • Corresponding author: CHEN Zong-wei(1972-), male, senior engineer, chenzw@motcats.ac.cn
  • Received Date: 2020-03-05
  • Publish Date: 2020-06-25
    Abstract
  • The characteristics of COVID-19, which is transmitted by contact and droplets and is infectious in the incubation period, were considered. Combined with the narrow space and airtight environment of the vehicle and based on SEIR model, the vehicle internal epidemic transmission model was established considering the factors of virus density, contact and infection rate among passengers, and travel time. Based on the internal epidemic transmission form in the vehicle, the epidemic transmission to the non-epidemic area in the process of the vehicle loading and unloading passengers at multiple stops was considered, and a model of epidemic spread along traffic routes based on population migration was established. The transmission mechanism of the epidemic along traffic routes was analyzed using the two models. Based on the population migration index and confirmed cases in Wuhan, the relationship between confirmed cases and population migration index was analyzed, and the transmission process of the epidemic along the high-speed railway was simulated. Research result shows that the cumulative confirmed cases of each provincial and municipal level have a strong positive correlation with the population migration index, indicating that transportation has a certain role in promoting the spread of the epidemic. There may be some passengers infected within the vehicle when there are infectives. With the backward effect of incubation period, to some extent, it explains that except for Wuhan, the number of newly confirmed cases in urban areas of other provinces in China was at a peak on January 31 to February 5 in 2020. The measures such as isolation and reducing passenger occupancy to reduce the contact between passengers can effectively reduce the infection risk of passengers, and the effect is significantly better than the ventilation and disinfection measures. Therefore, in order to reasonably control the spread of the epidemic along traffic routes, some measures should be taken to reduce the occupancy rate, increase the distance between passengers and reduce the contact rate, supplemented by the measures to increase ventilation and disinfection.

     

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