Rapid prediction and rerouting planning method of suborbital debris hazard zones during high-density space launches

Considering the potential risk of aircraft disintegration that may occur in the increasingly frequent commercial suborbital launch activities, a covariance propagation method was used to predict the propagation range of debris from the suborbital disintegration accidents. The method converted the debris motion equation into a Gaussian-Markov process and used the probability density function to construct a probability ellipsoid of the Gaussian-Markov process at a certain confidence level for the characterization of debris distribution. To avoid the collision risk between debris from suborbital disintegration accidents and aircrafts within the civil airspace, a hazard zone prediction and routing planning method of suborbital debris for air traffic control was proposed. The mathematical boundary of the probability ellipsoid of suborbital debris was determined according to the acceptable risk probability of civil aviation, and the projection of the probability ellipsoid in the horizontal direction was calculated. The hazard zone of debris was processed into a convex polygon by a geometric method. The number of diversion points in the diversion path was reduced by the constrained method, which was conducive to the smooth diversion of aircraft. Simulation results reveal that the covariance propagation method can rapidly and effectively predict the propagation process of debris from suborbital disintegration accidents in a complex atmospheric environment, showing the ellipsoid boundary range of 99.999% and 95.000%, respectively. The higher the confidence degree, the larger the boundary range of the probability ellipsoid, and the closer it is to the real debris falling propagation range. By using the constrained method of number of diversion points, the optimized rerouting path distance increases by 0.13% compared with that before the constraint, but the number of diversion points reduces by 50%. Therefore, the covariance propagation method can timely and accurately predict the propagation range of debris from suborbital disintegration accidents, and on this basis, efficient and safe redirecting strategies can be presented. 1 tab, 7 figs, 30 refs.