Estimation method for civil aircraft drag polar based on historical trajectory data

WANG Bing; ZHANG Bo-wen; PENG Ying

doi:10.19818/j.cnki.1671-1637.2025.04.023

Volume 25 Issue 4

Aug. 2025

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WANG Bing, ZHANG Bo-wen, PENG Ying. Estimation method for civil aircraft drag polar based on historical trajectory data[J]. Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, 2025, 25(4): 328-339. doi: 10.19818/j.cnki.1671-1637.2025.04.023

Citation:

WANG Bing, ZHANG Bo-wen, PENG Ying. Estimation method for civil aircraft drag polar based on historical trajectory data[J]. Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, 2025, 25(4): 328-339. doi: 10.19818/j.cnki.1671-1637.2025.04.023

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Estimation method for civil aircraft drag polar based on historical trajectory data

doi: 10.19818/j.cnki.1671-1637.2025.04.023

WANG Bing^{1, 2
,
,},
ZHANG Bo-wen^{1, 2},
PENG Ying^{1, 3}

1.
State Key Laboratory of Air Traffic Management System, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 211106, Jiangsu, China
2.
College of General Aviation and Flight, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Liyang 213300, Jiangsu, China
3.
College of Civil Aviation, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 211106, Jiangsu, China

Funds:

National Key R&D Program of China 2022YFB2602401

Received Date: 2024-07-25
Accepted Date: 2025-03-12
Rev Recd Date: 2025-01-06
Publish Date: 2025-08-28

Abstract

Abstract

To effectively solve the problem of the unavailability of civil aircraft's drag polar parameters through public channels, a method for estimating the drag of aircraft polar based on historical flight trajectory data was presented. An optimization model for drag polar parameters was constructed based on aircraft performance and thrust models. The optimization model was solved using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm based on the NUTS. The aircraft's drag polar parameters were obtained. To verify the method's effectiveness and generalizability, three direct flights of an A320 aircraft and 12 major types of current civilian aircraft (1 564 flights) were taken as examples. Estimation of drag polar and trajectory prediction for the climb phase were conducted. The predicted climb profiles were compared against actual climb profiles in quick access recorder (QAR) data. Analysis results show that for typical sample flight, the generated climb profile (climb to the cruising altitude of 341 00 feet) has a relative error of 1.16% of mean climb rate and an absolute error of pressure altitude within 500 feet compared to the climb profile in QAR data. This prediction accuracy is significantly improved compared to the predicted climb profile using reference drag polar from the traditional base of aircraft data. Among the results of bulk sample flights, 96.48% of the flights' predicted climb profiles have an absolute error within 1 000 feet, with average maximum absolute error of 497.71 feet for all flights. Therefore, the proposed method for estimating aircraft's drag polar is suitable for a large number of flights and can provide technical support for high-precision simulation and prediction of civilian aircraft trajectories.
- air traffic,
- trajectory prediction,
- drag polar,
- MCMC algorithm,
- aircraft thrust model,
- aircraft performance model

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References

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Estimation method for civil aircraft drag polar based on historical trajectory data

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