Volume 25 Issue 5
Oct.  2025
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QIAO Ya-ning, WEN Xia, GAO Yang-ming, HE Liang. Influence of LCA allocation methods on the life cycle carbon emission from roads and uncertainty analysis[J]. Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, 2025, 25(5): 82-95. doi: 10.19818/j.cnki.1671-1637.2025.05.007
Citation: QIAO Ya-ning, WEN Xia, GAO Yang-ming, HE Liang. Influence of LCA allocation methods on the life cycle carbon emission from roads and uncertainty analysis[J]. Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, 2025, 25(5): 82-95. doi: 10.19818/j.cnki.1671-1637.2025.05.007

Influence of LCA allocation methods on the life cycle carbon emission from roads and uncertainty analysis

doi: 10.19818/j.cnki.1671-1637.2025.05.007
Funds:

National Natural Science Foundation of China 52008388

National Natural Science Foundation of China 52278440

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  • Corresponding author: HE Liang (1983-), male, professor, PhD, heliangf1@163.com
  • Received Date: 2024-08-27
  • Accepted Date: 2025-03-12
  • Rev Recd Date: 2025-01-15
  • Publish Date: 2025-10-28
  • To analyze the effect of allocation method selection on the life cycle carbon emissions of roads, two common allocation methods (50/50 and Cut-off) were selected to quantify and compare the life cycle carbon emissions of roads. According to a single-factor sensitivity analysis, the influence of different parameters on the carbon emission comparison was evaluated to identify critical parameters affecting the comparison between the two allocation methods. Additionally, the probability density distribution functions of the parameters were introduced to quantify the parameter uncertainty of the model in comparison, and the Monte Carlo simulation method was used to propagate the parameter uncertainty to the results. Analysis results show that the carbon emission ratio of the 50/50 to the Cut-off allocation method is approximately 1.022 (no milling and resurfacing), 1.024 (one milling and resurfacing), 1.025 (two millings and resurfacings), and 1.026 (three millings and resurfacings), respectively. After the uncertainty analysis, the ratio decreases to 1.020, 1.021, 1.023, and 1.023, respectively. Since the difference between the 50/50 and Cut-off allocation methods is narrowed, the allocation method selection does not significantly influence the calculation of life cycle carbon emissions of roads. Moreover, despite different milling and resurfacing times, when the few calculation parameters change by 1%, the ratio of the rate of change in the carbon emission ratio to that in the calculation parameter exceeds 0.012. The density of the base and subbase, N2O emissions from diesel production, and the recycling rate of reclaimed pavement materials are critical parameters having an influence on the comparison of life cycle carbon emissions of roads between the 50/50 and the Cut-off allocation methods. The argumentation of allocation method selection in road life cycle assessment and the uncertainty analysis framework in this study can improve the method for calculating life cycle carbon emissions of roads and reduce the uncertainty in the calculations.

     

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