The Research of Methods of Analyzing Communication Based Train Control System's Reliability

The Communication based train control system (CBTC) is very likely to be the trend of the future railway.Some people have doubts about its reliability.A method based on Markov to analyze the reliability of CBTC is provided.Based on the feature that different component types do not interact in such a way as to cause an accident, CBTC model has been decomposed into submodels to be analyzed respectively.The submodels have also been predigested to solve the problem of state proliferation.The effect of human error rate and the failure coverage rate of dualized vital elements have also been analyzed.After that, the state transition map in chain style of different submodels have been given.Because of the orthogonality of the chains, the total accident rate is the sum of the individual chain's accident rates.