Integrated prediction method of nonlinear-seasonal passenger traffic income of airlines

WANG Fei-feng; WANG Kun; DENG Xue-jun

Volume 5 Issue 1

Turn off MathJax

Article Contents

Article Navigation > Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering > 2005 > 5(1): 66-69

Next Previous

WANG Fei-feng, WANG Kun, DENG Xue-jun. Integrated prediction method of nonlinear-seasonal passenger traffic income of airlines[J]. Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, 2005, 5(1): 66-69.

Citation:

WANG Fei-feng, WANG Kun, DENG Xue-jun. Integrated prediction method of nonlinear-seasonal passenger traffic income of airlines[J]. Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, 2005, 5(1): 66-69.

Citation:

PDF( 258 KB)

Integrated prediction method of nonlinear-seasonal passenger traffic income of airlines

1.
School of Transportation, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China
2.
Jiangsu Branch of China Eastern Airlines, Nanjing 211113, China

More Information

Author Bio:
WANG Fei-feng(1972-), male, PhD, 86-25-83355063, wangfeifeng@263.net
Received Date: 2004-10-23
Publish Date: 2005-03-25

Abstract

Abstract

Passenger traffic income of airlines has a dual trend of growth and seasonal fluctuation, which makes the income demonstrate a complicated nonlinear characteristic. A prediction model, based on the theory of grey prediction model GM (1, 1), was introduced to reflect the characteristic of its growth trend, a seasonal change prediction model was employed to reflect the characteristic of its seasonal fluctuation, an integrated nonlinear-seasonal prediction model of passenger traffic income of airlines was proposed. Prediction results show that the error rate of actual value and test value is less than 1%, the model is feasible.
- transportation management,
- passenger traffic income,
- seasonal fluctuation,
- GM (1, 1) model,
- integrated prediction model

FullText(HTML)

References(9)

References

[1]	马国柱, 马坚进. 现代企业经营管理学[M]. 上海: 立信会计出版社, 1998.
[2]	宁宣熙. 决策系统工程[M]. 北京: 航空工业出版社, 1995.
[3]	邓聚龙. 灰预测与灰决策[M]. 武汉: 华中科技大学出版社, 2002.
[4]	Deng J L. Introduction to grey system theory[J]. The Journal of Grey System(UK), 1989, 1(1): 1-24.
[5]	Philip Hans Franses. Time Series Model for Business and Economic Forecasting[M]. Beijing: Publishing House of Renmin University of China, 2002.
[6]	朱胜. 统计学原理[M]. 北京: 中国统计出版社, 2003.
[7]	刘思峰, 郭天榜, 党耀国. 灰色系统理论及其应用[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 1999.
[8]	杨思梁. 最盈利的管理方法——收益管理[M]. 北京: 航空工业出版社, 2000.
[9]	姚祖康, 顾保南. 交通运输工程导论[M]. 北京: 人民交通出版社, 2003.