MD forecasting model of passenger traffic volume for newly-built high-speed railway in transport corridor

In order to accurately analyze the future passenger traffic volume of newly-built high-speed railway in transport corridor, using the utility principle of economics and the analytical method of mathematics, the paper studied the conception, hypothesis and principium of MD model, discussed the mechanisms of the potential demand and requirement achieve ratio, the total payment of travel and the choice of varies transport.The forecasting results of MD model and conventional method indicate that the market percentage of newly-built high-speed railway is approximately 70%, the annually increasing ratio of potential demand volume reduces by 1%, which adapt to the change of traffic volume, the way of combining MD model with conventional method of traffic volume forecasting can reflect the relations between different service levels of transport and their market percentages well.