Grey Verhulst Predictive Model of Road Traffic Accidents

WANG Fu-jian; LI Tie-qiang; YU Chuan-zheng

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Article Navigation > Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering > 2006 > 6(1): 122-126

WANG Fu-jian, LI Tie-qiang, YU Chuan-zheng. Grey Verhulst Predictive Model of Road Traffic Accidents[J]. Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, 2006, 6(1): 122-126.

Citation:

WANG Fu-jian, LI Tie-qiang, YU Chuan-zheng. Grey Verhulst Predictive Model of Road Traffic Accidents[J]. Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, 2006, 6(1): 122-126.

WANG Fu-jian, LI Tie-qiang, YU Chuan-zheng. Grey Verhulst Predictive Model of Road Traffic Accidents[J]. Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, 2006, 6(1): 122-126.

Citation:

WANG Fu-jian, LI Tie-qiang, YU Chuan-zheng. Grey Verhulst Predictive Model of Road Traffic Accidents[J]. Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, 2006, 6(1): 122-126.

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Grey Verhulst Predictive Model of Road Traffic Accidents

1.
Institute of Transportation Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310027, Zhejiang, China
2.
Cangzhou Transportation Bureau of Hebei Province, Cangzhou 061000, Hebei, China
3.
Road Traffic Administration Bureau, Public Security Department of Zhejiang Province, Hangzhou 310007, Zhejiang, China

More Information

Author Bio:
WANG Fu-jian(1969-), male, PhD, associate professor, 86-571-87952198, ciewfj@zju.edu.cn
Received Date: 2005-09-20
Publish Date: 2006-03-25

Abstract

Abstract

In order to improve the predictive precisions of grey predictive models for road traffic accidents, the properties of GM (1, 1) model and grey Verhulst model were analyzed.GM (1, 1) model adapted to the sequences with good exponent law, only described monotonous change process, Verhulst model adapted swinging sequences or saturated S-shape sequences.Recently, road traffic accidents in China developed as saturated S-shape sequences, so a Verhulst predictive model of road traffic accidents was put forward.The predictive values of grey Verhulst model and GM (1, 1) model for the death people numbers of road traffic accidents in 2004 in China are (108 700) and 117 200 respectively, their predictive precisions are 1.49% and 9.43% respectively, which shows that the predictive precision of the presented model is better than that of GM (1, 1) model.
- traffic safety,
- road traffic accidents,
- grey prediction,
- grey Verhulst model,
- GM (1, 1) model

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References(10)

References

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