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Yuan Wei, Fu Rui, Guo Ying-shi, Han Wen-li. Prediction model of death toll resulted from road traffic accidents[J]. Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, 2007, 7(4): 112-116.
Citation: Yuan Wei, Fu Rui, Guo Ying-shi, Han Wen-li. Prediction model of death toll resulted from road traffic accidents[J]. Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, 2007, 7(4): 112-116.
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Prediction model of death toll resulted from road traffic accidents

  • 1.

    School of Automobile, Chang'an University, Xi'an 710064, Shaanxi, China

  • 2.

    Public Security Bureau of Shaanxi Airport of Civil Aviation, Xi'an 710075, Shaanxi, China

More Information
  • Author Bio:

    Yuan Wei(1975-), male, lecturer, doctoral student of engineering, +86-29-82334722, yuanwei@chd.edu.cn

    Fu Rui(1965-), female, professor, +86-29-82334722, furui@chd.edu.cn

  • Received Date: 2007-01-13
  • Publish Date: 2007-08-25
    Abstract
  • In order to scientifically predict the future traffic safety situation in China, a prediction model of traffic accident death toll was built based on the analysis of evaluation indices and main influence factors of Chinese road traffic safety situation, which several factors were taken as parameters, including motor vehicle amount, population, highway mileage, passengers and goods transport volume, and government policy. According to the model, the annual death toll from 1991 to 2004 was calculated, and the future death toll was predicted.Prediction result shows that the precision of the model is higher, the average predicting error is 3.9%;the predicting values of accident death toll in 2010 and 2020 are 14 ten thousand people and 17 ten thousand people respectively; the turning time is during 2010 to 2015 when the death toll changes from rising to descending.

     

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