Determining method of dangerous areas around tropical cyclone based on multisource forecasts

In order to improve the integrity and accuacy of tropical cyclone(TC) information, the present methods of determining the dangerous areas around TC were analyzed, and a new method based on multisource forecasts was proposed. According to the forecasting results of TC center positons made by China, Japan and the United States, forecasting discrete values were computed. From the relation between forecasting positions and average errors, the radius of 90% TC falling probability circle was got. Covering the radius of strong wind or rough sea area outside the probability circle, the dangerous areas around TC center were got based on considering different TC forecasting results. Obviously, the method improves the falling probability of TC forecasting circle, and strongly guarantees the safety of ships' avoiding TC.