Transport network design under demand forecast uncertainty

PAN Yan-rong; DENG Wei

Volume 8 Issue 6

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PAN Yan-rong, DENG Wei. Transport network design under demand forecast uncertainty[J]. Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, 2008, 8(6): 82-87.

Citation:

PAN Yan-rong, DENG Wei. Transport network design under demand forecast uncertainty[J]. Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, 2008, 8(6): 82-87.

PAN Yan-rong, DENG Wei. Transport network design under demand forecast uncertainty[J]. Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, 2008, 8(6): 82-87.

Citation:

PAN Yan-rong, DENG Wei. Transport network design under demand forecast uncertainty[J]. Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, 2008, 8(6): 82-87.

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Transport network design under demand forecast uncertainty

School of Transportation, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, Jiangsu, China

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Author Bio:
PAN Yan-rong (1979-), female, doctoral student, +86-25-83689604, panyanrong1979@163.com

DENG Wei (1966-), male, professor, PhD, +86-25-83795857, dengwei@seu.edu.cn
Received Date: 2008-06-20
Publish Date: 2008-12-25

Abstract

Abstract

In order to analyze the influence of demand forecast uncertainty on transport network design, two kinds of models were established based on different forecast results, the one for continuous demand was transport network design model based on sensitivity analysis, and the other for discrete demand was transport network design model based on scenario forecast. There were two items in the models, the former was network benefit, and the latter was network stability. The establishment processes of the two models were put forward, and their calculation methods and applicable bounds were studied. Computation result shows that with the lessening of design parameter, traffic network benefit is smaller, traffic network stability is larger, and different network design results are got, so the models considering demand uncertainty can reflect the practical situations of traffic netwrok better.
- transport network design,
- demand uncertainty,
- sensitivity analysis,
- scenario forecast

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References(14)

References

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