Average waiting time model for passengers transfering from high-speed railway to bus

The characteristics of the waiting times of passengers transfering from high-speed railway to bus were analyzed, the actual arrival times of passengers at bus stations in high-speed railway hubs were tested, the distribution of passenger arrival times was fitted, and K-S test was carried out. Based on probabilistic theory, the average waiting time model was set up by considering the limitation of bus carrying capacity, the validity of the proposed model was verified, and the influences of the arrival time intervals of high-speed train and bus, transfer passenger amount, bus carrying capacity and bus punctuality rate on the average waiting time of passengers were simulated. Simulation result indicates that when the arrival time interval of highspeed train is 10 min and the arrival time interval of bus increases from 200 sto 600 s, the average waiting time of transfer passengers increases from 120 sto 1 000 s. When bus carrying capacity is 50 people·veh^-1 and transfer passenger amount increases from 50 to 200, the average waiting time of transfer passengers increases from 100 sto 900 s. When the average arrival time interval of bus is 200 sand the standard deviation of bus arrival time interval increases from 0 to 400 s, the average waiting time of transfer passengers increases from 110 sto 800 s. The average waiting time of transfer passengers has a positive correlation with bus arrival time interval, a negative correlation with the arrival time interval of high-speed train, apositive correlation with transfer passenger amount, and a negative correlation with bus punctuality rate.