Risk probability assessment of seismic damage for embankment based on Monte Carlo method

YIN Chao; WANG Xiao-yuan; LIU Fei-fei; TIAN Wei; A MELANI

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YIN Chao, WANG Xiao-yuan, LIU Fei-fei, TIAN Wei, A MELANI. Risk probability assessment of seismic damage for embankment based on Monte Carlo method[J]. Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, 2016, 16(6): 30-38.

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YIN Chao, WANG Xiao-yuan, LIU Fei-fei, TIAN Wei, A MELANI. Risk probability assessment of seismic damage for embankment based on Monte Carlo method[J]. Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, 2016, 16(6): 30-38.

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Risk probability assessment of seismic damage for embankment based on Monte Carlo method

1.
School of Transportation and Vehicle Engineering, Shandong University of Technology, Zibo 255049, Shandong, China
2.
Key Laboratory for Special Area Highway Engineering of Ministry of Education, Chang'an University, Xi'an 710054, Shaanxi, China

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Author Bio:
YIN Chao(1987-), male, lecturer, PhD, +86-533-2786036, yinchao1987611@163.com
Received Date: 2016-07-02
Publish Date: 2016-12-25

Abstract

Abstract

The embankment of Lianyungang-Horgos Expressway at K1125+470 was taken as research object, the seismic damage, embankment structure form and ground motion input were determined, the seismic vulnerability curves were drawn by combining incremental dynamic analysis and probabilistic seismic demand analysis, and the seismic vulnerability of embankment was evaluated.Embankment's seismic risk probability was defined as the convolution of seismic hazard and embankment seismic vulnerability, and its calculation method was put forward.The probability distribution model of seismic intensity and the relationship between seismic intensity and PGA were studied, and the probability distribution function of PGA was propssed in the next 50 years.The risk probabilities of embankment seismic were evaluated by using the Monte Carlo method for embankments with and without retaining wall, and the positive effect of retaining wall on improving embankment's seismic performance was verified.Analysis result shows that when PGA is 0.6g, the probability exceeding severe damage of embankment without retaining wall is 65.910%;When PGA is 0.8g, the probability is 99.995%, so the seismic vulnerability of embankment without retaining wall is high.The risk probability of exceeding severe damage for embankment without retaining wall is 29.07% and the risk probability of main integrity and minor damage is 31.97% in the next 50 years.In the next 50 years, the risk probability exceeding severe damage for embankment with retaining wall is 7.9% lower than the value without retaining wall, and the risk probability of main integrity and minor damage is 12.14%higher than the value without retaining wall, which indicates that retaining wall can significantly reduce the seismic damage risk of embankment.The acceptable risk probability exceeding severe damage in the next 50 years is defined as 40%in order for new embankments' aseismic design and existing embankments' aseismic reinforcement.
- subgrade engineering,
- embankment's seismic damage,
- vulnerability,
- distribution of seismic motion,
- risk probability assessment,
- risk acceptability,
- embankment reforcement

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References(25)

References

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