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FENG Xia, ZHANG Xin, CHEN Feng. Boarding duration distribution of aircraft turnaround[J]. Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, 2017, 17(2): 98-105.
Citation: FENG Xia, ZHANG Xin, CHEN Feng. Boarding duration distribution of aircraft turnaround[J]. Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, 2017, 17(2): 98-105.
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Boarding duration distribution of aircraft turnaround

  • 1.

    Information Technology Research Base of Civil Aviation Administration of China, Civil AviationUniversity of China, Tianjin 300300, China

  • 2.

    School of Computer Science and Technology, Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin 300300, China

  • 3.

    Software Technology Research Laboratory, De Montfort University, Leicester LE1 9BH, England, United Kingdom

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  • Author Bio:

    FENG Xia(1970-), female, professor, PhD, +86-22-24092914, caucfx@126.com

  • Received Date: 2016-10-10
  • Publish Date: 2017-04-25
    Abstract
  • In order to accurately predict aircraft turnaround boarding duration, the randomness and catchable regularity of boarding duration were studied.Combining the operation situation of Beijing Capital International Airport, the aircraft turnaround data were grouped according to aircraft type, gate position and arrive time on the basis of analyzing the main factors influencing on the boarding duration.The frequency of aircraft boarding duration was counted, and the distribution of boarding duration was fitted by using normal distribution, Weibull distribution and Poisson distribution.Chi-square fitting goodness was used to test each distribution, the unknown parameters of the distributions were estimated by the maximum likelihood estimationmethod, the complete distributions of boarding duration in different combined conditions were got, and the distribution models of boarding duration were constructed.Analysis result shows that the distribution of boarding duration can be fitted by the three distributions, and the fitting goodnesses are larger.Weibull distribution adapts to every group of data.However, normal distribution and Poisson distribution have better fitting goodnesses in groups Ⅲ (medium-sized aircraft, contact stands, 22:00-23:59), Ⅴ (medium-sized aircraft, remote stands, 09:00-21:59), Ⅶ (large-sized aircraft, contact stands, 00:00-08:59), Ⅷ (large-sized aircraft, contact stands, 09:00-21:59), and Ⅸ (large-sized aircraft, contact stands, 22:00-23:59).The distribution models can be used to forecast the boarding duration well, and the average error of the actual values and the calculated values is less than 2 min.When the confidence level is 90%, the distribution interval width is 10-12 min, and the average prediction accuracy is 83.63%.When the confidence level is 75%, the distribution interval width is 7-9min, and the average prediction accuracy is 66.94%.It can be seen that the accuracy of the distribution interval almost reachs the confidence level.Obviously, the distribution models can be used to predict the aircraft boarding duration accurately.

     

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