Path analysis method of driving factors of carbon emissions for Chinese transportation industry

DU Qiang; SUN Qiang; YANG Qi; FENG Xin-yu; YANG Jian

Volume 17 Issue 2

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DU Qiang, SUN Qiang, YANG Qi, FENG Xin-yu, YANG Jian. Path analysis method of driving factors of carbon emissions for Chinese transportation industry[J]. Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, 2017, 17(2): 143-150.

Citation:

DU Qiang, SUN Qiang, YANG Qi, FENG Xin-yu, YANG Jian. Path analysis method of driving factors of carbon emissions for Chinese transportation industry[J]. Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, 2017, 17(2): 143-150.

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Path analysis method of driving factors of carbon emissions for Chinese transportation industry

1.
School of Economics and Management, Chang' an University, Xi'an 710064, Shaanxi, China
2.
School of Civil Engineering, Chang'an University, Xi'an 710061, Shaanxi, China
3.
School of Civil Engineering, University of Birmingham, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK

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Author Bio:
DU Qiang(1981-), male, associate professor, PhD, +86-29-82339228, q.du@chd.edu.cn
Received Date: 2016-12-25
Publish Date: 2017-04-25

Abstract

Abstract

The driving factors of carbon emissions for Chinese transportation industry were analyzed, and the path analysis method of carbon emissions' driving factors was proposed based on multi-element regression analysis method.Based on the last two decades' panel data of carbon emissions for Chinese transportation industry, the direct and indirect path coefficients of the factors were computed, and the direct influence degrees of main driving factors and the indirect influence degrees of their interactions were studied.Analysis result shows that economic level, transportation intensity and energy intensity are main influence factors of transportation carbon emissions.The larger the direct path coefficient is, the greaterthe promotion to transportation carbon emissions is.The larger the indirect path coefficient is, the greater the dependence on other factors is.Economic level's direct path coefficient is 1.338, which indicates that economic growth directly stimulates the increase of carbon emissions.The sum of economic level's indirect path coefficients is-0.350, so economic level has little dependence on other two factors but has strong promotion effect.Transportation intensity's direct path coefficient is 0.422, which indicates that transportation intensity increases transportation carbon emissions. The sum of transportation intensity's indirect path coefficients is 1.171, so transportation intensity has strong dependence on economic level, the logistic quantity and logistic cost of unit GDP consumption are higher, and the added value of industry is lower.Energy intensity's direct path coefficient is 0.216, which indicates that energy intensity is an important factor to increase transportation carbon emissions.The sum of energy intensity's indirect coefficients is 0.119, so economic development increases energy consumption, which results in a large amount of carbon dioxide emission, and the high economic and environmental costs results from the higher energy consumption of unit turnover and the lower intensive using degree of energy.
- transportation,
- carbon emission,
- path analysis method,
- driving factor,
- path coefficient

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References

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