Safety analysis of highway passenger transport and modeling of vehicle brake performances
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摘要: 为了准确评价中国公路客运安全状况, 研究了长途客车交通事故现状, 利用反力式滚筒制动试验台对长途客运车辆制动性能进行检测, 采用大样本数据采集、多变量数据分析及数学建模等技术手段, 分析了典型长途大客车和轻型客车各项制动性能分布, 同时给出车辆多项制动性能的最优拟合分布及分布参数的最优估计值, 并建立了相应的制动性能统计模型。分析结果表明: 中国公路客运万车死亡率和亿车公里死亡率分别为26.828人.万车-1与6.555人. (亿车.km) -1, 事故率仍然偏高; 长途大客车和轻型客车各项制动性能均服从Weibull分布; 统计模型计算结果与样本实测结果的相对误差均未超过2.378%, 因此, 所建模型计算结果准确可靠。Abstract: To accurately evaluate the safety situation of highway passenger transport in China, the present condition of traffic accidents caused by long-distance passenger vehicles was reviewed, and the brake performances of long-distance passenger vehicles were detected by reaction type roller brake tester.Based on the technical methods, such as large sample data collecting, multivariable data analyzing and mathematical modeling, the brake performance distributions of these vehicles were analyzed, the optimum fitting distributions and optimum distributive parameter estimations of several brake performances were obtained, and the relevant statistical models of the brake performances were established.Analysis result shows that highway passenger transport mortality per 10 thousand vehicles is 26.828, and the mortality per 100 million vehicle-kilometers is 6.555, so the accident rate in China is still high.The brake performances of long-distance passenger vehicles obey Weibull distribution, the relative errors between statistical model volues and detecting results are all less than 2.378%, so the models are accurate and reliable.
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表 1 交通事故死亡人数
Table 1. Death populations of traffic accidents
国家 德国 法国 意大利 日本 英国 美国 死亡人数 4 477 4 274 4 739 5 155 3 337 37 261 
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表 2 交通事故统计
Table 2. Statistical data of traffic accidents
事故原因 事故数 死亡人数 受伤人数 直接财产损失 数量/起 百分比/% 数量 百分比/% 数量 百分比/% 数量/元 百分比/% 制动失效 2 609 12.85 1 203 14.34 3 475 14.65 15 839 115 17.08 制动不良 12 004 59.14 5 028 59.93 13 401 56.48 40 156 951 43.29 其他 5 685 28.01 2 159 25.73 6 851 28.87 36 762 106 39.63 合计 20 298 100.00 8 390 100.00 23 727 100.00 92 758 172 100.00
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表 3 制动力要求
Table 3. Requirements of brake force
制动力总和与整车质量的百分比/% 轴制动力与轴荷的百分比/% 空载 满载 前轴 后轴 ≥60 ≥50 ≥60* — 注: 带“*”数字为空载和满载状态下测试均应满足此要求。
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表 4 车辆制动性能检测结果
Table 4. Testing results of vehicle brake performances
检测参数 车1 车2 车3 车4 车5 车6 车7 车8 车9 车10 前轴左右轮制动力差/% 12.5 16.0 9.8 13.3 17.6 11.3 12.3 6.0 30.7 14.1 后轴左右轮制动力差/% 1.1 2.0 1.6 9.1 9.5 2.8 1.6 3.3 1.8 4.3 前轴车轮阻滞力/% 1.9 1.7 11.8 2.1 2.5 2.3 2.2 1.6 1.1 1.8 后轴车轮阻滞力/% 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.0 1.7 2.0 2.0
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表 5 轻型客车制动性能分布参数估计结果
Table 5. Distribution parameter estimating results of light bus brake performances
指标 相关系数R 最优拟合分布参数估计值 m η 前轴制动力平衡 0.999 5 1.311 537 0 9.438 672 0 后轴制动力平衡 0.996 9 1.286 685 0 14.320 130 0 前轴车轮阻滞力 0.935 2 3.020 378 0 1.442 109 0 后轴车轮阻滞力 1.000 0 3.979 833 0 2.023 983 0 前轴制动效果 0.998 2 10.906 820 0 81.424 900 0 后轴制动效果 0.993 2 6.010 053 0 73.526 790 0 制动总效果 0.982 0 7.855 022 0 76.920 680 0 驻车制动效果 0.972 3 6.574 063 0 25.716 030 0
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表 6 大客车制动性能分布参数估计结果
Table 6. Distribution parameter estimating results of coach brake performances
指标 相关系数R 最优拟合分布参数估计值 m η 前轴制动力平衡 0.973 2 0.772 421 2 12.678 650 0 后轴制动力平衡 0.999 4 0.420 771 3 0.800 840 4 前轴车轮阻滞力 0.902 1 0.320 976 3 0.226 340 5 后轴车轮阻滞力 0.979 5 3.854 024 0 1.836 231 0
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表 7 长途轻型客车模型计算误差
Table 7. Model-calculating errors of long-distance light buses
指标 国家标准值/% 计算合格率/% 实测合格率/% 计算相对误差/% 前轴制动力平衡 ≤20 93.126 0 94.090 9 -1.025 5 后轴制动力平衡 ≤24 85.678 1 86.818 2 1.313 2 前轴车轮阻滞力 ≤5 97.687 9 99.330 0 -1.653 2 后轴车轮阻滞力 ≤5 97.302 6 99.440 0 -2.149 4 前轴制动效果 ≥60 96.484 9 96.330 3 0.106 5 后轴制动效果 ≥60 74.477 2 75.814 0 -1.763 3 制动总效果 ≥60 86.755 9 86.111 1 0.748 8 驻车制动效果 ≥60 82.567 8 84.579 4 -2.378 4
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表 8 长途大客车模型计算误差
Table 8. Model-calculating errors of long-distance coaches
指标 国家标准值/% 计算合格率/% 实测合格率/% 计算相对误差/% 前轴制动力平衡 ≤20 75.877 4 75.757 5 0.158 2 后轴制动力平衡 ≤8 92.819 3 92.424 2 0.427 5 前轴车轮阻滞力 ≤5 93.283 4 93.939 4 -0.007 2 后轴车轮阻滞力 ≤5 100.000 0 100.000 0 0.000 0
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