基于驾驶人路径选择偏好的OD行程时间预测方法

孙健; 张颖; 张纯

doi:10.19818/j.cnki.1671-1637.2016.02.017

基于驾驶人路径选择偏好的OD行程时间预测方法

doi: 10.19818/j.cnki.1671-1637.2016.02.017

孙健^{1, 2,},
张颖^{1, 2},
张纯²

1.
上海交通大学海洋工程国家重点实验室，上海 200240
2.
上海交通大学交通研究中心，上海 200240

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目 71101109

教育部人文社会科学研究项目 15YJCZH148

上海市科委“科技创新行动计划”项目 15692105400

详细信息

作者简介:
孙健(1978-), 男, 安徽芜湖人, 上海交通大学研究员, 工学博士, 从事城市驾驶行为与环境研究

中图分类号: U491.1
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2015-09-15
- 刊出日期: 2016-04-25

Prediction method of OD travel time based on driver's route choice preference

SUN Jian^{1, 2
,},
ZHANG Ying^{1, 2},
ZHANG Chun²

1.
State Key Laboratory of Ocean Engineering, Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai 200240, China
2.
Transportation Research Center, Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai 200240, China

More Information

Author Bio:
SUN Jian(1978-), male, researcher, PhD, +86-21-34206674, danielsun@sjtu.edu.cn

摘要

摘要: 以广东省深圳市3 000余辆浮动车近300万组数据为基础, 以地理信息系统技术为主要工具, 以最具代表性的深圳市福田区与罗湖区为研究区域, 确定了不同起讫(OD)点扩展半径。以浮动车唯一编号进行地图匹配, 根据确定的研究区域与扩展半径, 获取了浮动车OD路径与行程时间。确定了驾驶人在进行路径选择时的时间与空间偏好, 建立了基于路径选择偏好的OD行程时间预测方法。以平均绝对百分比误差、均方根相对误差与最大相对误差为指标, 对基于最短路径、最快路径与偏好路径的3种行程时间预测方法进行比较。比较结果表明: 与基于最短路径的预测方法相比, 采用提出方法的平均绝对百分比误差、均方根相对误差与最大相对误差分别降低了66.51%、61.24%、61.47%;与基于最快路径的预测方法相比, 采用提出方法的平均绝对百分比误差、均方根相对误差与最大相对误差分别降低了63.64%、59.70%、58.99%, 因此, 采用基于驾驶人路径选择偏好的OD行程时间预测方法可以显著提高OD行程时间的预测精度。
- OD行程时间预测方法 /
- 路径选择偏好 /
- 地理信息系统 /
- 地图匹配 /
- 浮动车数据
Abstract: Based on about three million data of more than 3 000 floating cars in Shenzhen City of Guangzhou Province, geographic information system (GIS) technology was used as main tool, the representative Futian and Luohu Districts were used as study areas, and the expansion radii of different OD pairs were determined.Map matching was processed by using the unique number of floating car, the OD path and travel time of floating car were obtained according to the determined study area and expansion radius.The driver's temporal and spatial preferences during route choice were determined, and the OD travel time prediction method based on the route choice preference was established.Using the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), the root mean square relative error (RMSRE), and the maximum relative error (MRE) as indicators, the travel time prediction methods based on the shortest route, the fastest route and the preference route were compared.Comparison result indicates that compared to the prediction method based on the shortest route, the values of MAPE, RMSRE, and MRE of proposed method decrease by 66.51%, 61.24%, and 61.47% respectively, compared to the prediction method based on the fastest route, the values of MAPE, RMSRE, and MRE of proposed method decrease by 63.64%, 59.70%, and 58.99% respectively, so the prediction precision of OD travel time is significantly improved by using the prediction method of OD travel time based on driver's route choice preference.
- prediction method of OD travel time /
- route choice preference /
- GIS /
- map matching /
- floating car data

HTML全文

图 1 地图匹配结果

Figure 1. Map matching result

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图 2 平均交通拥挤程度

Figure 2. Average traffic congestion degrees

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图 3 浮动车车次数统计结果

Figure 3. Statistical results of floating car numbers

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图 4 均方差系数计算结果

Figure 4. Calculation results of mean square coefficients of variance

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图 5 OD行程时间分布

Figure 5. Distribution of OD travel time

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图 6 路径行驶比例

Figure 6. Driving percentages of routes

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图 7 不同方法的比较

Figure 7. Comparison among different methods

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图 8 误差分析结果

Figure 8. Result of error analysis

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表 1 浮动车数据结构

Table 1. Structure of FCD

下载: 导出CSV

表 2 路径重合比例

Table 2. Routes coincidence percentages

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表 3 道路运行情况

Table 3. Operation conditions of roads

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