高速公路单车事故建模方法

杨宏志; 叶亚丽; 许金良; 钟纯耀

doi:10.19818/j.cnki.1671-1637.2011.01.015

高速公路单车事故建模方法

doi: 10.19818/j.cnki.1671-1637.2011.01.015

1.
长安大学特殊地区公路工程教育部重点实验室，陕西西安 710064
2.
山东交通学院土木工程系，山东济南 250023
3.
广东高速集团有限公司，广东广州 510100

基金项目:

陕西省交通科技项目 08-08R

陕西省交通科技项目 06-31K

详细信息

作者简介:
杨宏志(1975-)，男，山东昌邑人，长安大学副教授，工学博士，从事道路交通安全与道路路线设计技术研究

中图分类号: U491.31
计量
- 文章访问数: 1194
- HTML全文浏览量: 279
- PDF下载量: 629
- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2010-09-12
- 刊出日期: 2011-02-25

Single-vehicle accident modelling method on freeway

1.
Key Laboratory for Special Area Highway Engineering of Ministry of Education, Chang'an University, Xi'an 710064, Shaanxi, China
2.
Department of Civil Engineering, Shandong Jiaotong University, Jinan 250023, Shandong, China
3.
Guangdong Provincial Freeway Co., Ltd., Guangzhou 510100, Guangdong, China

More Information

Author Bio:
YANG Hong-zhi(1975-), male, associate professor, PhD, +86-29-82334864, yhz@gl.chd.edu.cn

Article Text (Baidu Translation)

摘要

摘要: 利用随机试验和数学均值化原理, 对收集的单车事故数据进行了分析, 运用定积分的元素法计算单车事故率面积函数, 并对其拟合求导。结合面积函数的线形变化规律, 筛选出单车交通事故影响因子和道路几何要素变量, 逐一建立了各独立变量对事故率的影响模型, 并确定了最终的变量。采用回归分析方法构建不同半径和直线长度的单车事故预测模型, 利用三维曲面图对模型进行分析, 提出了高速公路设计中适宜采用的半径和直线长度取值区间。研究结果表明: 高速公路设计中采用直线-曲线-直线的线形组合时, 适宜曲线半径区间应为[2 500, 3 500]和直线长度区间应为[1 000, 2 000];在曲线半径大于不设超高的最小半径时, 与之相连的直线长度宜取1 000 m。
- 交通安全 /
- 单车事故率 /
- 面积函数 /
- 影响因子 /
- 回归分析
Abstract: The collected single-vehicle accidents were analyzed by using random trial and mathematic equalization principle. The area function of single-vehicle accident rate was computed by definite integral element method. The affecting factors and geometric variables of traffic accident were selected one by one according to the change rule of area function, the affecting model of every variable was set up, and the final variables were determined. The single-vehicle accident forecast models were established in the sections with different radiuses and linear lengths by using regression analysis. The suitable curve radius and linear length were proposed through analyzing the 3D surface charts of the models. Research result indicates that in freeway design, the reasonable radius of a curve is in the interval [2 500, 3 500], and a linear length is in the interval [1 000, 2 000] for the alignment combination of straight line-curve-straight line. When the radius of curve is more than the minimum radius without superelevation, it is 1 000 for the linear length of that is connected with the curve.
- traffic safety /
- single-vehicle accident rate /
- area function /
- affect factor /
- regression analysis

HTML全文

图 1 半径与事故率散点

Figure 1. Scatter plots of radiuses and accident rates

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 曲线半径与事故率均值化散点

Figure 2. Scatter plots of radiuses and means of accident rates

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 矩形法面积计算

Figure 3. Area calculation of rectangular method

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 4 面积函数与事故模型关系

Figure 4. Relationship of area function and accident model

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 5 曲线半径与事故率面积散点

Figure 5. Scatter plots of radiuses and areas of accident rates

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 6 事故模型三维曲面

Figure 6. Three-dimensional surfaces of accident model

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

参考文献(19)

[1]	钟纯耀. 高速公路单车事故统计分析研究[D]. 西安: 长安大学, 2008. ZHONG Chun-yao. The statistics analysis on the single vehicle accidents[D]. Xi'an: Chang'an University, 2008. (in Chinese)
[2]	ABDULHAI B, LOOK H. Impact of dynamic and safetyconscious route guidance on accident risk[J]. Journal of Transportation Engineering, 2003, 129 (4): 369-376. doi: 10.1061/(ASCE)0733-947X(2003)129:4(369)
[3]	SAWALHA Z, SAYED T. Statistical issues in traffic acci-dent modeling[C]∥TRB. TRB 2003 Annual Meeting. Wash-ington DC: TRB, 2003: 1-27.
[4]	MA Jian-ming, KOCKELMAN K M, DAMIEN P. Bayesian multivariate poisson-lognormal regression for crash prediction on rural two-lane highways[C]∥TRB. TRB 2007 Annual Meeting. Washington DC: TRB, 2007: 1-27.
[5]	刘利. 道路交通事故统计分析及预测模型研究[D]. 重庆: 重庆大学, 2004. LIU Li. Study on statistic analysis and prediction model of road traffic accident[D]. Chongqing: Chongqing University, 2004. (in Chinese)
[6]	周晓光. 青海省长大下坡交通事故预测模型的建立[D]. 西安: 长安大学, 2007. ZHOU Xiao-guang. The establishment forecast model of traffic accidents on long and steep downgrades in Qinghai Province[D]. Xi'an: Chang'an University, 2007. (in Chinese)
[7]	周伟, 罗石贵. 路段交通事故多发点的冲突判定方法[J]. 中国公路学报, 2000, 13 (1): 81-86. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1001-7372.2000.01.019 ZHOU Wei, LUO Shi-gui. Traffic conflict identification of road accident blackspots[J]. China Journal of Highway and Transport, 2000, 13 (1): 81-86. (in Chinese) doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1001-7372.2000.01.019
[8]	张生瑞, 马壮林, 徐景翠. 高速公路隧道内交通事故分布规律[J]. 长安大学学报: 自然科学版, 2008, 28 (4): 74-78. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1671-8879.2008.04.017 ZHANG Sheng-rui, MA Zhuang-lin, XU Jing-cui. Traffic accidents distribution law in freeway tunnel[J]. Journal of Chang'an University: Natural Science Edition, 2008, 28 (4): 74-78. (in Chinese) doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1671-8879.2008.04.017
[9]	SUN Xiao-duan, LI Yue-bin, MAGRI D, et al. Application of highway safety manual draftchapter: Louisiana experience[C]∥TRB. TRB2006 Annual Meeting. Washington DC: TRB, 2006: 55-64.
[10]	OHJ S, OH C, RITCHIE S C, et al. Rea-ltime estimation of accident likelihood for safety enhancement[J]. Journal of Transportation Engineering, 2005, 131 (5): 358-363. doi: 10.1061/(ASCE)0733-947X(2005)131:5(358)
[11]	裴玉龙, 马骥. 道路交通事故道路条件成因分析及预防对策研究[J]. 中国公路学报, 2003, 16 (4): 77-82 doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1001-7372.2003.04.017 PEI Yu-long, MA Ji. Research on countermeasures for road condition causes of traffic accidents[J]. China Journal of Highway and Transport, 2003, 16(4): 77-82. (in Chinese) doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1001-7372.2003.04.017
[12]	张长生, 马荣国. 山区高速公路交通事故分析及多发路段鉴别[J]. 长安大学学报: 自然科学版, 2010, 30 (6): 76-80 https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-XAGL201006017.htm ZHANG Chang-sheng, MA Rong-guo. Indentifying method of traffic accident black spots on mountain freeway[J]. Journal of Chang'an University: Natural Science Edition, 2010, 30(6): 76-80. (in Chinese) https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-XAGL201006017.htm
[13]	JTG D20—2006, 公路路线设计规范[S]. JTG D20—2006, design specification for highway route[S]. (in Chinese)
[14]	JTG B01—2003, 公路工程技术标准[S]. JTG B01—2003, technical standard of highwayengineering[S]. (in Chinese)
[15]	李铁洪, 吴华金. 长直线接小半径曲线公路交通事故成因及预防对策[J]. 中国公路学报, 2007, 20 (1): 35-40. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1001-7372.2007.01.007 LI Tie-hong, WU Hua-jin. Causes and countermeasures of highway traffic accidents in long straight line combined with sharpcurve[J]. China Journal of Highwayand Transport, 2007, 20 (1): 35-40. (in Chinese) doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1001-7372.2007.01.007
[16]	杨宏志, 胡庆谊, 许金良. 高速公路长大下坡路段安全设计与评价方法[J]. 交通运输工程学报, 2010, 10 (3): 10-16, 40. http://transport.chd.edu.cn/article/id/201003002 YANG Hong-zhi, HU Qing-yi, XU Jin-liang. Safety design and evaluation method of long-steep downgrade sections for expressway[J]. Journal of Traffic and Transporation Engineering, 2010, 10 (3): 10-16, 40. (in Chinese) http://transport.chd.edu.cn/article/id/201003002
[17]	邓云潮. 公路长大下坡路段小客车运行速度预测模型[J]. 长安大学学报: 自然科学版, 2009, 29 (4): 43-47. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-XAGL200904009.htm DENG Yun-chao. Speed prediction model of free-flowing passenger car on long and steep downgrades[J]. Journal of Chang'an University: Natural Science Edition, 2009, 29 (4): 43-47. (in Chinese) https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-XAGL200904009.htm
[18]	裴玉龙, 程国柱. 高速公路车速离散性与交通事故的关系及车速管理研究[J]. 中国公路学报, 2004, 17 (1): 74-78. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZGGL200401018.htm PEI Yu-long, CHENG Guo-zhu. Research on the relationship between discrete character of speed and traffic accident and speed management of freeway[J]. China Journal of Highway and Transport, 2004, 17 (1): 74-78. (in Chinese) https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZGGL200401018.htm
[19]	陈斌, 金炜东, 高利. 高速公路事故响应控制模式构建[J]. 中国公路学报, 2004, 17 (2): 85-89. CHEN Bin, JIN Wei-dong, GAO Li. Incident response control model construction on expressway, 2004, 17(2): 85-89. (in Chinese)