Multi-objective optimization inspection decision-making method based on delay-time model
Article Text (Baidu Translation)
-
摘要: 根据某航空公司货运机队的某型发动机HPTACC系统在某一周期内的预防性检查计划、检查发现的缺陷以及失效维修记录, 分析了系统在运行过程中将缺陷延迟发现时间作为安全性优化目标、将检修费用作为经济性优化目标的可行性。在预防性检查时刻发现缺陷的检修策略下, 推导了在各检查时刻基于时间延迟模型的缺陷数期望值和缺陷延迟发现时间期望值概率计算式。在缺陷退化为失效被及时发现并进行更换维修的检修策略下, 推导了在各检查间隔期内基于时间延迟模型的失效发生次数期望值概率计算式。基于2种检修策略下的概率公式, 建立了系统在给定寿命周期内的似然函数, 建立了检修费用和缺陷延迟发现时间的期望值双优化目标函数式, 运用了改进的非支配排序遗传算法优化得到双目标函数的Pareto最优解集。根据决策者的目标偏好及其分界值对应的检修费用及缺陷延迟发现时间的经验估计值, 分别确定了系统在寿命周期内的检修费用和缺陷延迟发现时间的目标偏好函数, 通过目标偏好函数划分区间确定Pareto最优解集中各最优解的偏好区间。基于收集的检修信息和提出的方法, 对决策者将缺陷延迟发现时间期望值目标偏好定为一般、将检修费用期望值目标偏好定为很好的偏好要求进行实例分析。分析结果表明: 最优检查间隔决策约为67、70或77次起降循环, 这些检查间隔为决策者进行多目标相对最优的精确决策提供细化和更精简的选择参考。Abstract: In accordance with the preventive check plans, the defects detected in the course of inspection, and the repairing and renewing records in a certain cycles for the HPTACC system of a type of aeroengine of an airline freight fleet, the feasibilities for regarding the delayed time for the defects detected and the inspection and repairing costs as safety and economy optimization objectives were analyzed respectively.Under the inspection and repairing strategy of defects detected at the moments of preventive inspection, the probability expressions of expected number of defects and the delayed time for defects detected based on the delay-time model at any inspection momentwere deduced.Under the inspection and repairing strategy of defects degrading into failure and then being found timely and renewed at once, the probability expression of expected number of failure occurring based on delay-time model in every inspection interval was deduced.Based on the probability expressions under 2inspection and repairing strategies, the likelihood function for the system in a given life cycle was build.The double optimization objective functions including inspection and repairing costs and expected delayed time for detected defects were formed.A Pareto optimal solution set of double objective functions were derived by using the improved nondominated sorting genetic algorithm.According to the deciders' objective preference options and the empirical estimates of inspection and repairing costs and the delayed time for detected defects corresponding to their boundary values, the objective preference functions of inspection and repairing costs and the delayed time for detected defects in certain life cycles were determined respectively.The preference interval for every value in the Pareto optimal solution set was determined by using the objective preference function.Based on the collected inspection and repairing data and the proposed methods, an example was analyzed, in which the objective preferences of the delayed time of detected defects and the inspection and repairing costs for deciders were general and good respectively.Analysis result shows that the optimal inspection intervals are 67, 70 or 77landing and take-off cycles, which could provide detailed and more accurate decision-making reference of multi-objective relative optimization for deciders.
-
图 4 缺陷产生至失效发生的延时过程
Figure 4. Delay-time course from defect generation to failure occuring
图 6 Pareto最优解与最优检查间隔的关系
Figure 6. Relationship between Pareto optimal solution and optimal inspection interval
图 7 优化目标函数与目标偏好函数关系
Figure 7. Relationship between optimal objective function and target preference function
图 8 缺陷延迟发现期望时间目标偏好函数曲线
Figure 8. Target preference function curve of expected delayed time for defects detected
图 9 检修费用目标偏好函数曲线
Figure 9. Target preference function curve of inspection and repairing costs
-
[1] 顾伟, 乔剑, 陈潇, 等. 民用航空涡扇发动机涡轮叶尖间隙控制技术综述[J]. 燃气轮机技术, 2013, 26(1): 1-4. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1009-2889.2013.01.001GU Wei, QIAO Jian, CHEN Xiao, et al. A review of turbine clearance control system for civil turbofan engine[J]. Gas Turbine Technology, 2013, 26(1): 1-4. (in Chinese). doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1009-2889.2013.01.001 [2] AO Liang-zhong. The faults analysis of HPTACCV fuel leakage on CFM56-5Bengine[J]. Advanced Materials Research, 2012, 503/504: 1510-1513. doi: 10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.503-504.1510 [3] 张井山, 毛军逵, 李毅, 等. 高压涡轮主动间隙控制机匣内部换热特性试验[J]. 航空动力学报, 2014, 29(2): 298-304. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-HKDI201402008.htmZHANG Jing-shan, MAO Jun-kui, LI Yi, et al. Experiment on heat transfer characteristics inside the casing of high pressure turbine with active clearance control[J]. Journal of Aerospace Power, 2014, 29(2): 298-304. (in Chinese). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-HKDI201402008.htm [4] SUN Jian-zhong, ZUO Hong-fu, WANG Wen-bin, et al. Application of a state space modeling technique to system prognostics based on a health index for condition-based maintenance[J]. Mechanical Systems and Signal Processing, 2012, 28(2): 585-596. [5] ZHU Lei, ZUO Hong-fu. The delay-time maintenance optimization model with two failure modes[J]. Advanced Materials Research, 2012, 452/453: 190-194. doi: 10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.452-453.190 [6] RAI R N, BOLIA N. Availability-based optimal maintenance policies for repairable systems in military aviation by identification of dominant failure modes[J]. Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability, 2014, 228(1): 52-61. doi: 10.1177/1748006X13495777 [7] 李小波, 王宏伟, 李良锋, 等. 基于PHM的发动机旋转部件状态维修决策研究[J]. 科学技术与工程, 2011, 11(36): 9113-9115. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1671-1815.2011.36.041LI Xiao-bo, WANG Hong-wei, LI Liang-feng, et al. The research on maintenance decision-making based on PHM for rotating components of engine[J]. Science Technology and Engineering, 2011, 11(36): 9113-9115. (in Chinese). doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1671-1815.2011.36.041 [8] WANG Hua-wei, GAO Jun, LIU Zhi-yong. Maintenance decision based on data fusion of aero engines[J]. Mathematical Problems in Engineering, 2013, 2013: 1-10. [9] 任淑红, 左洪福, 白芳. 基于带漂移的布朗运动的民用航空发动机实时性能可靠性预测[J]. 航空动力学报, 2009, 24(12): 2796-2801. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-HKDI200912025.htmREN Shu-hong, ZUO Hong-fu, BAI Fang. Real-time performance reliability prediction for civil aviation engines based on Brownian motion with drift[J]. Journal of Aerospace Power, 2009, 24(12): 2796-2801. (in Chinese). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-HKDI200912025.htm [10] 付旭云, 王瑞, 钟诗胜. 航空发动机车间维修成本预测[J]. 计算机集成制造系统, 2010, 16(10): 2304-2310. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-JSJJ201010041.htmFU Xu-yun, WANG Rui, ZHONG Shi-sheng. Aeroengine shop visit cost prediction[J]. Computer Integrated Manufacturing Systems, 2010, 16(10): 2304-2310. (in Chinese). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-JSJJ201010041.htm [11] 付旭云, 陈银, 钟诗胜. 基于寿命件的民航发动机送修目标确定方法[J]. 航空动力学报, 2014, 29(7): 1556-1561. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-HKDI201407006.htmFU Xu-yun, CHEN Yin, ZHONG Shi-sheng. Approach for civil aero-engine repair objective determination based on life limited parts[J]. Journal of Aerospace Power, 2014, 29(7): 1556-1561. (in Chinese). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-HKDI201407006.htm [12] ZHU Lei, ZUO Hong-fu. Predicting compressor of gas turbine power plant on-line washing interval using proportional hazards model[J]. Advanced Materials Research, 2012, 452/453: 195-199. doi: 10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.452-453.195 [13] 朱磊, 左洪福, 蔡景, 等. 基于使用可靠性的民用航空发动机水洗间隔优化方法研究[J]. 航空计算技术, 2014, 44(3): 47-52. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1671-654X.2014.03.012ZHU Lei, ZUO Hong-fu, CAI Jing, et al. Optimization method of civil engine washing interval based on operational reliability[J]. Aeronautical Computing Technique, 2014, 44(3): 47-52. (in Chinese). doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1671-654X.2014.03.012 [14] LU Xiao-hua, ZUO Hong-fu, CAI Jing. Application of rough set theory to maintenance level decision-making for aeroengine modules based on incremental knowledge learning[J]. Transactions of Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2013, 30(4): 366-373. [15] 付旭云, 崔智全, 钟诗胜. 不确定条件下民航发动机维修工作范围决策[J]. 哈尔滨工业大学学报, 2012, 44(7): 78-82. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-HEBX201207016.htmFU Xu-yun, CUI Zhi-quan, ZHONG Shi-sheng. Civil aeroengine workscope decision-making under uncertain conditions[J]. Journal of Harbin Institute of Technology, 2012, 44(7): 78-82. (in Chinese). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-HEBX201207016.htm [16] 李冬, 宋岩, 马力, 等. 基于粗糙集和支持向量数据描述的发动机视情维修研究[J]. 燃气轮机技术, 2013, 26(1): 46-50, 58. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1009-2889.2013.01.009LI Dong, SONG Yan, MA Li, et al. Research of engine condition-based maintenance based on rough set and support vector data description[J]. Gas Turbine Technology, 2013, 26(1): 46-50, 58. (in Chinese). doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1009-2889.2013.01.009 [17] WANG Jian, DUAN Xiao-hu, LI Yan, et al. Prediction of aero engine fault by relative vector machine and genetic algorithm model[J]. Advanced Materials Research, 2014, 998/999: 1033-1036. doi: 10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.998-999.1033 [18] 余建军, 孙树栋, 王军强, 等. 免疫模拟退火算法及其在柔性动态Job Shop中的应用[J]. 中国机械工程, 2007, 18(7): 793-799. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1004-132X.2007.07.010YU Jian-jun, SUN Shu-dong, WANG Jun-qiang, et al. Immune simulated annealing hybrid algorithm and its application for flexible dynamical Job Shop scheduling[J]. China Mechanical Engineering, 2007, 18(7): 793-799. (in Chinese). doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1004-132X.2007.07.010 [19] 付旭云, 钟诗胜. 民用航空发动机维修计划启发式算法[J]. 计算机集成制造系统, 2010, 16(7): 1552-1557. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-JSJJ201007033.htmFU Xu-yun, ZHONG Shi-sheng. Heuristic algorithm for solving the aeroengine maintenance scheduling problem[J]. Computer Integrated Manufacturing Systems, 2010, 16(7): 1552-1557. (in Chinese). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-JSJJ201007033.htm [20] 白芳, 左洪福, 任淑红, 等. 航空发动机拆换率平滑方法研究[J]. 航空动力学报, 2008, 23(10): 1821-1828. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-HKDI200810011.htmBAI Fang, ZUO Hong-fu, REN Shu-hong, et al. Research on a smoothing method for engine removal rate[J]. Journal of Aerospace Power, 2008, 23(10): 1821-1828. (in Chinese). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-HKDI200810011.htm [21] 赵飞, 王华伟, 周唯杰. 基于隐马尔可夫的航空发动机视情维修研究[J]. 航空计算技术, 2010, 40(5): 15-19. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1671-654X.2010.05.004ZHAO Fei, WANG Hua-wei, ZHOU Wei-jie. Research on condition based maintenance for aero-engine using hidden Markov[J]. Aeronautical Computing Technique, 2010, 40(5): 15-19. (in Chinese). doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1671-654X.2010.05.004 [22] LI Wen-jian, PHAM H. An inspection-maintenance model for systems with multiple competing processes[J]. IEEE Transactions of Reliability, 2005, 54(2): 318-327. doi: 10.1109/TR.2005.847264 [23] CUNNINGHAM A, WANG W, ZIO E, et al. Application of delay-time analysis via monte carlo simulation[J]. Journal of Marine Engineering and Technology, 2011, 10(3): 57-72. doi: 10.1080/20464177.2011.11020252 [24] WANG Wen-bin. A joint spare part and maintenance inspection optimisation model using the delay-time concept[J]. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2011, 96(11): 1535-1541. doi: 10.1016/j.ress.2011.07.004 [25] ZHAO Fei, WANG Wen-bin, PENG Rui. Delay-time-based preventive maintenance modelling for a production plant: a case study in a steel mill[J]. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 2015, 66(12): 2015-2024. doi: 10.1057/jors.2015.20 [26] KIM S Y, FRANGOPOL D M. Inspection and monitoring planning for RC structures based on minimization of expected damage detection delay[J]. Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics, 2011, 26(2): 308-320. doi: 10.1016/j.probengmech.2010.08.009 [27] KIM S Y, FRANGOPOL D M. Optimum inspection planning for minimizing fatigue damage detection delay of ship hull structures[J]. International Journal of Fatigue, 2011, 33(3): 448-459. doi: 10.1016/j.ijfatigue.2010.09.018 [28] 赖红松, 董品杰, 祝国瑞. 求解多目标规划问题的Pareto多目标遗传算法[J]. 系统工程, 2003, 21(5): 24-28. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-4098.2003.05.006LAI Hong-song, DONG Pin-jie, ZHU Guo-rui. A Pareto multi-objective genetic algorithm for multi-objective programming problem[J]. Systems Engineering, 2003, 21(5): 24-28. (in Chinese). doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-4098.2003.05.006 [29] LU Lu, ANDERSON-COOK C M, LIN D K J. Optimal designed experiments using a Pareto front search for focused preference of multiple objectives[J]. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 2014, 71: 1178-1192. doi: 10.1016/j.csda.2013.04.008 [30] 范培蕾. 多目标优化方法及其在高超声速试飞器系统中的应用研究[D]. 长沙: 国防科学技术大学, 2009.FAN Pei-lei. Research on multi-objective optimization methods and their applications to hypersonic test vehicle[D]. Changsha: National University of Defense Technology, 2009. (in Chinese). -
下载:
点击查看大图
图(10)
计量
- 文章访问数: 3359
- HTML全文浏览量: 163
- PDF下载量: 3684
- 被引次数: 0
