IHSDM高速公路事故预测模型

孟祥海; 侯芹忠; 史永义; 荆林朋; 郑来

doi:10.19818/j.cnki.1671-1637.2016.01.015

IHSDM高速公路事故预测模型

doi: 10.19818/j.cnki.1671-1637.2016.01.015

哈尔滨工业大学交通科学与工程学院, 黑龙江哈尔滨 150090

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目 51329801

详细信息

作者简介:
孟祥海(1969-), 男, 黑龙江海伦人, 哈尔滨工业大学教授, 工学博士, 从事道路交通安全与交通规划研究

中图分类号: U491.31
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2015-09-20
- 刊出日期: 2016-02-25

IHSDM freeway accident prediction models

School of Transportation Science and Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150090, Heilongjiang, China

More Information

Author Bio:
MENG Xiang-hai (1969-), male, professor, PhD, +86-451-86282116, mengxianghai100@126.com

摘要

摘要: 应用交互式道路安全设计模型(IHSDM)对11类高速公路进行事故预测, 并对比了预测事故数与实际事故数, 给出了基本事故预测模型与线形指标修正系数, 构建了一组IHSDM事故预测改进模型, 分析了线形指标的敏感性与线形指标的变化对预测事故率的影响, 并计算了各类高速公路线形指标的安全取值范围。分析结果表明: 采用IHSDM预测的高速公路事故数小于实际事故数, 最小误差为13%, 最大误差为52%;改进模型事故总数预测值与实际值的相对误差小于10%, 具体路段上的皮尔逊相关系数不小于0.60, 均方根误差小于0.30, 平均相对误差小于30%;事故率对各线形指标敏感性由高到低依次为直线段长度、纵坡坡度、平曲线偏角、平曲线半径、竖曲线半径。可见, 与IHSDM相比, 改进模型具有更高的精度和更好的适用性。
- 交通安全 /
- 高速公路 /
- 交互式道路安全设计模型 /
- 事故预测模型 /
- 敏感性分析
Abstract: IHSDM(interactive highway safety design model)was used to predict accidents of 11 types of freeways, and the predicted accident numbers were compared with the actual accident numbers.The basic accident prediction models and the modification coefficients of alignment indexes were obtained, a set of IHSDM accident prediction improved models were built to carry out the sensitivity analysis of alignment indexes, the effects of alignment indexes on the predicted accident rates were explained, and the safe value ranges of alignment indexes for freeways were obtained.Analysis result shows that the accident numbers predicted by IHSDM are lower than the actual accident number, the least error is 13%, and the maximum error is 52%.The relative error between total accident number predicted by the improved model and the actual value is less than 10%.At specific road sections, Pearson's correlation coefficients are 0.60 at least, the root mean square errors are less than 0.30, and the mean relative errors are less than 30%.The sensitivities of accident rates to alignment indexes from high to low are straight line length, longitudinal slope, horizontal curve angle, horizontal curve radius and vertical curve radius.Obviously, compared with IHSDM, the improved model has higher accuracy and better applicability.
- traffic safety /
- freeway /
- IHSDM /
- accident prediction model /
- sensitivity analysis

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图 1 路段划分结果

Figure 1. Section division result

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图 2 线形指标与事故率的关系

Figure 2. Relations between alignment indexes and accident rate

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图 3 交通量与事故率的关系

Figure 3. Relations between traffic volumes and accident rates

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图 4 修正系数与线形指标的关系

Figure 4. Relations between modification coefficients and alignment indexes

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图 5 类型6高速公路事故预测结果

Figure 5. Accident prediction result of type 6 freeway

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图 6 模型1预测事故率与线形指标的关系

Figure 6. Relations between predicted accident rates and alignment indexes of model 1

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表 1 高速公路类型

Table 1. Freeway types

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表 2 线形指标

Table 2. Alignment indexes

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表 3 交通事故数据

Table 3. Data of traffic accidents

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表 4 交通量

Table 4. Traffic volumes

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表 5 实际事故数与IHSDM预测事故数的对比

Table 5. Comparison of actual accidents number and predicted accidents number by IHSDM

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表 6 评价指标计算结果

Table 6. Calculation result of evaluation indexes

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表 7 改进模型

Table 7. Improved models

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表 8 线形指标取值范围

Table 8. Ranges of alignment indexes

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表 9 改进模型的参数

Table 9. Parameters of improved models

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表 10 事故总数预测值对比

Table 10. Comparison of predicted total accidents numbers

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表 11 改进模型的评价指标

Table 11. Evaluation indexes of improved models

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表 12 相对敏感度分级标准

Table 12. Grading standards of relative sensitivity

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表 13 模型1中线形指标取值范围

Table 13. Alignment index ranges of model 1

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表 14 线形指标安全取值范围

Table 14. Safe ranges of alignment indexes

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