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WANG Guan-hu, CAI Liang-cai, SHAO Bin, ZHONG Xiao-lei, XU Ming-xia. Modified gray prediction model of service life for airport cement concrete pavement[J]. Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, 2009, 9(3): 45-48. doi: 10.19818/j.cnki.1671-1637.2009.03.008
Citation: WANG Guan-hu, CAI Liang-cai, SHAO Bin, ZHONG Xiao-lei, XU Ming-xia. Modified gray prediction model of service life for airport cement concrete pavement[J]. Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, 2009, 9(3): 45-48. doi: 10.19818/j.cnki.1671-1637.2009.03.008
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Modified gray prediction model of service life for airport cement concrete pavement

doi: 10.19818/j.cnki.1671-1637.2009.03.008

  • School of Engineering, Air Force Engineering University, Xi'an 710038, Shaanxi, China

More Information
  • Author Bio:

    WANG Guan-hu(1979-), male, doctoral student, +86-29-83461866, wangguanhu@126.com

    CAI Liang-cai(1960-),male,professor,+86-29-84787701, Liangcai07@126.com

  • Received Date: 2008-12-16
  • Publish Date: 2009-06-25
    Abstract
  • In order to accurately predict the service life for airport cement concrete pavement, the service characters of airport cement concrete pavement were studied, pavement breakage degree was considered as pavement service life index.A gray prediction model was established according to gray system theory.Its prescision was tested by using origin residual error method.The solving process of the model was improved by taking the latter measuring value of pavement breakage degree as initial condition.Analysis result shows that pavement breakage degree increases exponentially with service time, but pavement remaining service life decreases exponentially with service time.The relative error between the forecast value and actual value of pavement breakage degree is less than 5%, so the prediction model is effective and can be used in periodic inspectability pavement.

     

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