Hybrid evacuation population estimation model based on fuzzy logic and discrete choice model

In order to predict the personnel decision behaviors in potential dangerous areas about participating evacuation or not reasonably, a hybrid model was presented based on fuzzy logic and discrete choice model, which could reflect the influencing factors and degrees for evacuation decision behavior.The binary Logit model structure was used to construct the hybrid model, and fuzzy logic was adopted to capture subjective and qualitative variables.Based on the analysis of significance, the influencing factors of evacuation decision behavior and their responsible coefficients in utility function were determined.The evacuation behavior surveying data after hurricane Andrew in America were used to estimate and test the hybrid model, and its result was compared with that of relative models.Analysis result indicates that the prediction accuracy of the hybrid model reaches 85%, so the hybrid model has a higher fitting degree and a better prediction efficiency.