Macroscopic econometrics model of traffic accident

From the points of macroscopic factors such as economic development level, population number, vehicle ownership and road condition, the regularities of traffic accidents at home and abroad were analyzed.The relations among per capita GDP and vehicle ownership per 1 000 population, mortality per 10 000 vehicles, mortality per 100 000 population were studied.Based on macroscopic econometrics and Cobb-Douglas function, the panel data model of traffic accident was set up by using the historical data in seven countries.Fixed effect model and random effect model were used to estimate parameters respectively, Hausman test was carried out, and the macroscopic econometrics models of traffic accidents for the seven countries were set up.Calculation result shows that among the parameters of traffic accidents, mortality per 100 000 population is negative correlation with per capita GDP and per capita road length, mortality per 100 000 population is positive correlation with vehicle ownership per 1 000 population.Through Hausman test, chi-square distribution value is 3.91 when freedom is 3, the probability is 0.02 and less than the confidence level which is 0.05.Compared with the random effect model, all the confidence levels of variables for fixed effect model are less than 0.05, and the goodness of fit is better.So the fixed effect model is effective.