-
摘要: 为了准确预估飞机过站上客过程持续时间, 研究了上客过程持续时间的随机性与可捕获的规律性, 结合北京首都国际机场运行情况, 分析了影响上客过程持续时间主要因素, 根据机型、停机位和到港时间对飞机过站数据进行分组, 统计了上客过程持续时间的频数, 分别采用正态分布、韦布尔分布和泊松分布对上客过程持续时间进行分布拟合, 通过卡方拟合优度检验分布, 采用最大似然估计法对分布的未知参数进行估计, 得到上客过程在各个组合条件下的完整分布, 构建了飞机过站上客过程持续时间分布模型。分析结果表明: 3种不同分布对上客过程持续时间都有较好的拟合度, 韦布尔分布适用于各种组合条件, 但在分组Ⅲ (中型机、近机位、22:00~23:59)、Ⅴ (中型机、远机位、09:00~21:59)、Ⅶ (大型机、近机位、00:00~08:59)、Ⅷ (大型机、近机位、09:00~21:59) 和Ⅸ (大型机、近机位、22:00~23:59) 中, 正态分布与泊松分布的拟合优度大于韦布尔分布的拟合优度; 所建分布模型能很好地预测上客过程持续时间, 上客过程持续时间实际值与根据分布模型计算的数值的平均误差小于2min; 置信水平为90%的分布区间宽度为10~12min, 平均预测准确率为83.63%, 置信水平为75%的分布区间宽度为7~9min, 平均预测准确率为66.94%, 可以看出分布区间的预测准确率几乎达到了置信水平, 因此, 采用分布模型可准确预测飞机过站上客过程持续时间。Abstract: In order to accurately predict aircraft turnaround boarding duration, the randomness and catchable regularity of boarding duration were studied.Combining the operation situation of Beijing Capital International Airport, the aircraft turnaround data were grouped according to aircraft type, gate position and arrive time on the basis of analyzing the main factors influencing on the boarding duration.The frequency of aircraft boarding duration was counted, and the distribution of boarding duration was fitted by using normal distribution, Weibull distribution and Poisson distribution.Chi-square fitting goodness was used to test each distribution, the unknown parameters of the distributions were estimated by the maximum likelihood estimationmethod, the complete distributions of boarding duration in different combined conditions were got, and the distribution models of boarding duration were constructed.Analysis result shows that the distribution of boarding duration can be fitted by the three distributions, and the fitting goodnesses are larger.Weibull distribution adapts to every group of data.However, normal distribution and Poisson distribution have better fitting goodnesses in groups Ⅲ (medium-sized aircraft, contact stands, 22:00-23:59), Ⅴ (medium-sized aircraft, remote stands, 09:00-21:59), Ⅶ (large-sized aircraft, contact stands, 00:00-08:59), Ⅷ (large-sized aircraft, contact stands, 09:00-21:59), and Ⅸ (large-sized aircraft, contact stands, 22:00-23:59).The distribution models can be used to forecast the boarding duration well, and the average error of the actual values and the calculated values is less than 2 min.When the confidence level is 90%, the distribution interval width is 10-12 min, and the average prediction accuracy is 83.63%.When the confidence level is 75%, the distribution interval width is 7-9min, and the average prediction accuracy is 66.94%.It can be seen that the accuracy of the distribution interval almost reachs the confidence level.Obviously, the distribution models can be used to predict the aircraft boarding duration accurately.
-
Key words:
- air transport /
- aircraft turnaround /
- boarding /
- duration /
- distribution fitting /
- fitting goodness test /
- parameter estimation
-
图 1 中型机和大型机的平均上客过程持续时间
Figure 1. Average boarding durations of medium and large aircrafts
图 2 近机位和远机位飞机的平均上客过程持续时间
Figure 2. Average boarding durations of contact and remote stands
表 3 上客过程持续时间卡方拟合优度检验结果
Table 3. Test result of Chi-square fitting goodnesses of boarding durations
下载: 导出CSV
-
[1] VIDOSAVLJEVICA, TOSIC V. Modeling of turnaround process using petri nets[C]//ATRS. The 21th ATRS World Conference. Washington: ATRS, 2010: 595-607. [2] TANG Tie-qiao, HUANG Hai-jun, SHANG Hua-yan. A new pedestrian-following model for aircraft boarding and numerical tests[J]. Nonlinear Dynamics, 2012, 67 (1): 437-443. doi: 10.1007/s11071-011-9992-7 [3] TANG Tie-qiao, WU Yong-hong, HUANG Hai-jun, et al. An aircraft boarding model accounting for passengers'individual properties[J]. Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies, 2012, 22: 1-16. doi: 10.1016/j.trc.2011.11.005 [4] MILNE R J, KELLY A R. A new method for boarding passengers onto an airplane[J]. Journal of Air Transport Management, 2014, 34 (1): 93-100. [5] STEFFEN J H. Optimal boarding method for airline passengers[J]. Journal of Air Transport Management, 2008, 14 (3): 146-150. doi: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2008.03.003 [6] 尚华艳, 陆化普, 彭愚. 基于元胞自动机的乘客登机策略[J]. 清华大学学报: 自然科学版, 2010, 50 (9): 1330-1333. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QHXB201009002.htmSHANG Hua-yan, LU Hua-pu, PENG Yu. Aircraft boarding strategy based on cellular automata[J]. Journal of Tsinghua University: Science and Technology, 2010, 50 (9): 1330-1333. (in Chinese). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QHXB201009002.htm [7] 任新惠, 唐少勇. 单通道客机登机策略模拟研究[J]. 科学技术与工程, 2015, 15 (1): 120-126. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-KXJS201501023.htmREN Xin-hui, TANG Shao-yong. The simulation study of single aisle aircraft boarding strategy[J]. Science Technology and Engineering, 2015, 15 (1): 120-126. (in Chinese). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-KXJS201501023.htm [8] ORESCHKO B, KUNZE T, SCHULTZ M, et al. Turnaround prediction with stochastic process times and airport specific delay pattern[C]//ICRAT. 5th International Conference on Research and Air Transportation. Berkeley: ICRAT, 2012: 411-419. [9] SCHULTZ M, KUNZE T, ORESCHKO B, et al. Dynamic turnaround management in a highly automated airport environment[C]//ICAS. The 28th International Congress of the Aeronautical Sciences. Bonn: ICAS, 2012: 1-10. [10] KUNZE T, ORESCHKO B, FRICKE H. Aircraft turnaround management in a highly automated 4D flight operations environment[D]. Dresden: Technische Universität Dresden, 2012. [11] KUNZE T, SCHULTZ M, FRICKE H. An approach for efficient aircraft turnaround operations using automated decision support[C]//ATACCS. 3rd International Conference on Application and Theory of Automation in Command and Control Systems. Neapel: ATACCS, 2013: 1126-1130. [12] FRICKE H, SCHULTZ M. Delay impacts onto turnaround performance-optimal time buffering for minimizing delay propagation[C]//ATM. The 8th ATM Seminar. Napa: ATM, 2009: 141-150. [13] SCHULTZ M, KUNZE T, ORESCHKO B, et al. Microscopic process modelling for efficient aircraft turnaround management[C]//ATOS. Proceedings of the Fourth International Air Transport and Operations Symposium. Delft: ATOS, 2013: 2101-2112. [14] SARA S. Ground handling simulation with CAST[D]. Hamburg: Hamburg University of Applied Sciences, 2010. [15] QIANG Sheng-Jie, JIA Bin, HUANG Qing-xia, et al. Mechanism behind phase transitions in airplane boarding process[J]. International Journal of Modern Physics C, 2016, 27 (6): 584-595. [16] ROBINSON D P, BONN J, MURPHY D J. Aircraft turnaround times and aircraft itinerary generation[C]//AIAA. The 11th AIAA Aviation Technology, Integration, and Operations. Reston: AIAA, 2013: 9267-9275. [17] MAKHLOOF M A A, WAHEED M E, BADAWI E R, et al. Real-time aircraft turnaround operations manager[J]. Production Planning and Control, 2014, 25 (1): 2-25. doi: 10.1080/09537287.2012.655800 [18] GOK Y S. Scheduling of aircraft turnaround operations using mathematical modelling: Turkish low-cost airline as a case study[D]. Coventry: Coventry University, 2014. [19] 齐观德, 潘遥, 李石坚, 等. 基于出租车轨迹数据挖掘的乘客候车时间预测[J]. 软件学报, 2013, 24 (增2): 14-23. https://cpfd.cnki.com.cn/Article/CPFDTOTAL-JDMT201211003002.htmQI Guan-de, PAN Yao, LI Shi-jian, et al. Predicting passengers'waiting time by mining taxi traces[J]. Journal of Software, 2013, 24 (S2): 14-23. (in Chinese). https://cpfd.cnki.com.cn/Article/CPFDTOTAL-JDMT201211003002.htm [20] 李志斌, 王炜, 李晓伟, 等. 高速公路车辆排队尾部交通事故时空分布特征[J]. 交通运输工程学报, 2014, 14 (4): 76-81. http://transport.chd.edu.cn/article/id/201404009LI Zhi-bin, WANG Wei, LI Xiao-wei, et al. Spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of traffic accident for highway vehicle queue tail[J]. Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, 2014, 14 (4): 76-81. (in Chinese). http://transport.chd.edu.cn/article/id/201404009 [21] 汤新民, 陈平, 李博. 航路飞行冲突解脱策略的滚动时域优化[J]. 交通运输工程学报, 2016, 16 (5): 74-82. http://transport.chd.edu.cn/article/id/201605009TANG Xin-min, CHEN Ping, LI Bo. Receding horizon optimization of en route flight conflict resolution strategy[J]. Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, 2016, 16 (5): 74-82. (in Chinese). http://transport.chd.edu.cn/article/id/201605009 [22] 丁建立, 赵键涛, 曹卫东. 基于贝叶斯网的航班过站时间动态估计[J]. 南京航空航天大学学报, 2015, 47 (4): 517-524. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-NJHK201504007.htmDING Jian-li, ZHAO Jian-tao, CAO Wei-dong. Dynamic estimation about turnaround time of flight based on Bayesian network[J]. Journal of Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2015, 47 (4): 517-524. (in Chinese). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-NJHK201504007.htm -
点击查看大图
图(8) / 表(5)
计量
- 文章访问数: 728
- HTML全文浏览量: 168
- PDF下载量: 485
- 被引次数: 0
