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ZHANG Lei, LI Yi-bing. Comprehensive-model method of reliability analysis for traffic accident reconstruction with redundant information[J]. Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, 2009, 9(3): 98-102. doi: 10.19818/j.cnki.1671-1637.2009.03.019
Citation: ZHANG Lei, LI Yi-bing. Comprehensive-model method of reliability analysis for traffic accident reconstruction with redundant information[J]. Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, 2009, 9(3): 98-102. doi: 10.19818/j.cnki.1671-1637.2009.03.019
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Comprehensive-model method of reliability analysis for traffic accident reconstruction with redundant information

doi: 10.19818/j.cnki.1671-1637.2009.03.019

  • State Key Laboratory of Automotive Safety and Energy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China

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  • Author Bio:

    ZHANG Lei(1974-), male, PhD, +86-10-68398205, zljlu@sina.com

    LI Yi-bing(1963-), male, professor, +86-10-62772721, liyb@mail.tsinghua.edu.cn

  • Received Date: 2008-12-12
  • Publish Date: 2009-06-25
    Abstract
  • In order to estimate the creditability of traffic accident reconstruction analysis, a reconstruction reliability analysis method was put forward which combined high-order moment technology, probabilistic perturbation method, Edgeworth series and reconstruction analysis technology.The confidence interval and confidence of reconstruction analysis result were obtained as the estimate indexes of the creditability.For traffic accident reconstruction reliability analysis with redundant information, a comprehensive-model method was proposed through integrating subjective weighting method, reliability analysis technology and optimization technology.A practical traffic accident case was investigated to verify the method's feasibility and validity.Study result indicates that the mean calculated by comprehensive-model method tends to the intermediate value of basic reconstruction analysis models, and the change range is minimum.So the reconstruction analysis result is more precise and scientific by using comprehensive-model method because of considering the intrinsical uncertainty influence of basic factors and expert experiences.

     

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    • References(8)
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